The National Weather Service is predicting that temperatures will be higher than average in Columbia County for the rest of the year.
“The outlook for temperatures are well above normal for most of the country,” Aaron Stevens, a forecaster for the National Weather Service (NWS) in Shreveport, said on Tuesday.
Over the phone, Stevens spoke about predictions that have been made by the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which lists the southern United States at a 50-60% chance for higher than average temperatures for the months of June through August.
Normal temperatures are defined by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) every ten years by computing 30-year climate averages.
In its most recent data available, from 2010, the NDNC lists February’s “Maximum Temperature Optimal Normal” at 58.4 degrees, with a “Minimum Temperature Optimal Normal” at 34.6 degrees. On Thursday in Magnolia, the high temperature exceeded 70 degrees and the low temperature was in the high 40s, well above NDNC’s “normal temperature” predictions for the area.
This climate pattern, of higher than average temperatures, is predicted to persist throughout the remainder of the year in Columbia County.
CPC makes climate predictions on temperatures for three-month periods. The predictions for temperature are characterized as probabilities that the temperature will be below or above normal for that time period. This doesn’t mean that it will be 50-60% hotter than normal; instead, the prediction is forecasting the chance that temperatures will be higher during the three month periods.
The most recent prediction made by the CPC for Columbia County is for March through May, which shows a 50-60% chance of temperatures being higher than normal. These percents do not change until the November through January prediction, which is listed at a 40-50% chance of higher than normal temperatures.
While meteorological agencies do make forecasts months out, specific weather predictions aren’t available, in general, until around the week of the predicted weather.
So what should residents expect, weather-wise, for the remainder of 2021? Potentially hotter than normal temperatures, according to the best available data. This may mean preparing for higher electric bills due to energy used on cooling and finding ways to combat the heat when outside of one’s home.
The Arkansas Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) helps low-income households with home energy costs by administering regular assistance and crisis intervention programs.
“Each program provides financial assistance to eligible households with a one-time per year payment to the household’s energy supplier or, under certain circumstances, to the applicant,” the LIHEAP website states. “The Crisis Intervention Program provides assistance to eligible households facing energy-related emergencies.”
To be eligible for benefit program, applicants must be a resident of Arkansas and in need of financial assistance with home energy costs. A person who participates or has family members who participates in certain other benefit programs, such as SNAP, SSI and TANF, automatically meet the eligibility requirement.
To combat the heat outside, drinking a steady amount of water throughout the day, utilizing sunscreen and taking frequent breaks from physical activity can help prevent heat and skin injuries.
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Looking ahead
Understanding what the weather will bring can help residents make preparations for it in advance. The NWS, local weather stations and mobile weather apps all display weather predictions for a varying number of days, but none are referenced as a go-to source for temperature and precipitation predictions for a full year like the Farmer’s Almanac.
During last week’s snowstorm, one Walmart employee stated that they made all of their preparations for the wintry mix weeks beforehand because of the Farmer’s Almanac’s guidance. And on TikTok, a viral video with 179.7 thousand views showed a man reading an excerpt from the Farmer’s Almanac on Feb. 16.
“Changeable skies getting colder. Heavy snow in eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma and all of Texas. Wintry mix through all of Arkansas, Louisiana,” user farmer.froberg said on TikTok, slightly different from what was published in the Farmer’s Almanac.
The Farmer’s Almanac weather forecast for Feb. 12-15 read “changeable skies;” for Feb. 16-19, it predicted “Clearing/colder;” and for Feb. 20-23, it read “Heavy snow eastern New Mexico, much of Oklahoma, Texas; a wintry mix for Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Showery southern portions of Texas, Louisiana. Messy for Mardi Gras.”
There are two Farmer’s Almanacs in circulation: The Old Farmer’s Almanac starting in 1792 and the Farmer’s Almanac that began in 1818. Both publications’ websites feature long-range weather forecasts, where non-subscribers can view weather condition predictions two months in advance. Subscribers for the websites are able to view forecasts through the end of 2021.
Despite its centuries of circulation, some experts argue the Farmer’s Almanac’s validity.
“(The) Farmer’s Almanac uses confirmation bias,” stated Matthew Cappucci, a meteorologist for the Washington Post, in an email to the Banner-News. “It’s a game of broad-brushing and just hewing close to historical odds.”
Confirmation bias involves testing one’s beliefs by looking for evidence to confirm those beliefs while ignoring evidence that would discount them.
Cappucci isn’t the only meteorologist to find problems with the almanacs; Dann Hennen, a CNN meteorologist, is quoted in a 2016 CNN story saying forecasts in the Farmer’s Almanac should be taken with a grain of salt.
“It’s difficult enough to do a five-day forecast,” Hennen is quoted as saying. “We’re really good at the day of and the next day, (and) we’re better at temperature than precipitation. But to forecast out that far in advance … even the science behind our long-range forecasting is sometimes not that solid.”
On the website, the Old Farmer’s Almanac states that their results are “almost always” close to its claim of 80% accuracy. The Farmer’s Almanac offers no percentage, but its “Our Forecast Accuracy” tab brings readers to a page with a headline reading, “On The Money: Farmer’s Almanac Accuracy.”
Both websites mention a “secret weather formula” for their long-range predictions, yet neither show any plot points for a comparison of their predictions to the actual weather after it has occurred.
“They say things like ‘cloudy north, more sun south.’ Well if you get sun within a 5-day window, does that make them correct?” Cappucci stated. “It’s hardly scientific, and they don’t publish verification statisOVERSET FOLLOWS:tics. I’d rather consult my alphabet soup for a forecast.”